The Ledger
This page is where obliter.ai keeps score on itself.
Most commentary on AI governance is free to be wrong. A prediction made in a newsletter is rarely revisited, and a confident claim costs nothing if it fails. That is the problem The Wolf Can Be Rented is about. A claim of knowledge becomes distinguishable from mere confidence only through a track record. So this site keeps one.
The rules
- Every question must be resolvable. It has a date, a named source that settles it, and a yes-or-no answer. A question whose resolution cannot be written in one sentence does not go in.
- The probability is stated in advance, as the probability that the answer is yes.
- Entries are never edited. A changed mind gets a new entry that links to the old one. The date is the point.
- Outcomes are recorded when they arrive, with a link to the resolving source. A question that turns out to be badly posed is marked Void. Void entries are not scored, but they are counted, because a ledger full of voids is its own kind of verdict.
- Nothing is staked. This is a record, not a wager.
The score
The ledger is scored with the Brier score: the average squared distance between the stated probability and what happened (1 for yes, 0 for no). A score of 0 is perfect. A score of 0.25 is what you get by answering "fifty-fifty" to everything. Anything worse than 0.25 means the site would have done better by admitting it had no idea.
As entries resolve, the score will also be broken down by probability band. The question is not only how often were we right. It is also when we said 70%, did it happen about seven times in ten?
Current Brier score: — (no entries resolved yet) Entries: 4 open · 0 resolved · 0 void
Open forecasts
| # | Recorded | Question | P(yes) | Resolves by | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30.09.2026. | Will the EDPB adopt the final, post-consultation version of Guidelines 03/2026 on web scraping in the context of generative AI? | 7% | 31 Mar 2027 | Open |
| 2 | 30.09.2026. | Will the Commission impose its first fine on a provider of a general-purpose AI model under Article 101 of the AI Act? | 7% | 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| 3 | 30.09.2026. | Will the Croatian Tax Administration issue a work-ban order against Polymarket or Kalshi, or block access to either? | 55% | 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| 4 | 30.09.2026. | Will the Commission propose or adopt a binding legal act expressly regulating event contracts under MiFID II or MiCA? | 20% | 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
Resolution criteria and reasoning
The reasoning below is recorded as it stood on the day each forecast was made, and it will not be updated. If it turns out to be wrong, the point is that you can see why.
1 — EDPB final guidelines on web scraping
Research area: Cognitive Real Estate
Resolves YES if the EDPB adopts the final version of Guidelines 03/2026 at a plenary session held on or before 31 March 2027. The adoption date stated by the EDPB decides; the date the text is published does not.
Reasoning. Consultation on version 1.0 (adopted 7 July 2026) closes on 30 October 2026, which leaves five months. The Board's recent record says that is not enough. The blockchain guidelines (02/2025) took about thirteen months from the close of their consultation to the final text, adopted at the same plenary that adopted this draft. The DSA–GDPR guidelines (3/2025) took 375 days from draft to final. Web scraping for generative AI will draw far more responses than blockchain did, and the Board has a second major consultation, on anonymisation, closing the same day. Five months would be the fastest turnaround this Board has managed on anything comparable.
2 — First GPAI fine under the AI Act
Research area: The Regulator's Gift
Resolves YES if the Commission publishes a decision imposing a fine on a provider of a general-purpose AI model under Article 101 of the AI Act, dated on or before 30 June 2027. Requests for information, preliminary findings and the opening of proceedings do not count.
Reasoning. Starting is not the same as finishing. The Commission's enforcement powers over GPAI providers began on 2 August 2026, and the AI Office sent its first requests for information to OpenAI, Anthropic, Google and others on 29 August. A request for information is a long way upstream of a fine: the Commission must reach preliminary findings and give the provider a hearing first. Under the Digital Markets Act, the gap between opening proceedings and the first fines was about thirteen months, and opening proceedings is itself several steps beyond a request for information.
3 — Croatia and Polymarket or Kalshi
Research area: The Regulator's Gift
Resolves YES if, on or before 30 June 2027, the Croatian Tax Administration (Porezna uprava) issues a work-ban order against Polymarket or Kalshi, or either platform's domain appears on the official list of blocked web addresses. A work-ban order on its own is enough; technical blocking is not required.
Reasoning. The machinery already exists and runs at scale. The Tax Administration has issued work-ban orders against 528 foreign online gambling operators, with web addresses blocked within fifteen days of the order, and it publishes the list. Pending amendments to the Zakon o igrama na sreću would add automatic site blocking and payment blocking. Eight European jurisdictions have already acted against these platforms. The open question is not whether Croatia can or would. It is whether anyone at the Tax Administration gets round to noticing, which is a question about attention rather than law. The statutory basis is analysed in Any Other Uncertain Event.
4 — A binding EU act on event contracts
Research area: The Regulator's Gift
Resolves YES if, on or before 30 June 2027, the Commission publishes a legislative proposal, or adopts a delegated or implementing act, containing provisions that expressly regulate event or prediction contracts under MiFID II or MiCA. Consultations, reports, communications and ESMA statements do not count.
Reasoning. The question is live at EU level. ESMA's public statement of 3 July 2026 addressed how the binary-option product intervention measures apply to event contracts, its risk monitoring report of 10 September 2026 found that the major platforms lack EU authorisation, and the Commission's consultation on prediction contracts under the MiCA review closes on 30 September 2026. But a consultation is the first step of a legislative cycle, not the last. Going from a consultation that closes at the end of September to a published proposal within nine months would be fast by Commission standards, and national gambling competences make the subject politically delicate.
Resolved forecasts
None yet. This section will list every resolved entry with its outcome, resolution source and date, including the ones this site got badly wrong.
The Clause has been invited to contribute a forecast. It declined, noting that it prefers arrangements in which it cannot be shown to have been wrong. We have recorded its answer.